Alleged insider nets over $1 million on Polymarket

Prediction Markets

A Polymarket trader known as AlphaRaccoon has netted over $1 million in 24 hours by placing suspiciously accurate bets on Google’s 2025 Year in Search rankings.

The user in question, made $1.15 million by correctly betting on nearly every major candidate, despite the market’s winner, d4vd, being given just a 0.2% chance of winning as recently as Nov. 29

While gamblers on Polymarket regularly make outsized returns on bold predictions, AlphaRaccoon not only correctly guessed “Yes” on d4vd, but also correctly guessed “No” on the market’s leading candidates such as Pope Leo XIV, Bianca Censori, Donald Trump, and Zohran Mamdani. Its suggested that Google may have “accidentally pushed the results early,” before removing them.

The 2025 Google Trends market marked a rare occasion in which Polymarket and many of its high-signal users were utterly wrong, while AlphaRacoon, was right.

While skeptics argue that Polymarket is the perfect place for people to funnel their hard-earned money to insiders who are “in the know”, proponents claim that insider trading, whether morally right or wrong, fuels Polymarket’s goal of providing the most realistic probabilities of specific outcomes.

RECOMMENDED