Hours before American and Israeli warplanes hit targets across Iran on February 28, a cluster of freshly created Polymarket accounts had already placed their bets. They knew what was coming, or at least traded as if they did.

Six wallets, all funded within 24 hours of the strikes, collectively wagered on “YES” for the question: “Will the US strike Iran by February 28, 2026?” When the bombs fell, those bets paid out approximately $1.2 million, according to blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps.

The largest single position turned roughly $61,000 into $493,000, an 821% return in a matter of days.

An analysis of on-chain data from Polymarket’s order book confirms the suspicious pattern. At least two of the winning wallets (accounts named “Lettucehead718” and “suffix-295”) executed trades at identical timestamps on February 27, buying YES shares on the February 28 market within seconds of each other. Both wallets had traded no more than 10 markets in their entire histories. Both also placed small bets on nearby dates, a tactic that Polymarket watchers describe as “decoy” trades designed to make insider activity look like speculative noise.

“There was insane insider-looking trading on the Iran markets,” wrote gavelsvtw, a Polymarket tools developer, on X. “5+ wallets that together cleared $1,000,000… they sprinkled decoy bets on other dates. Biggest inside-looking trade I’ve seen in a year.”

The suspected insider wallets are uniform. Of the top 20 holders of winning YES shares on the February 28 market, all hold between $42,000 and $62,000 worth of shares, a tight clustering that suggests a single operator distributing funds across multiple accounts to avoid detection.

Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman said the evidence was “convincing enough to share,” noting the “freshly funded wallets” and suspicious timing, while acknowledging that certainty in these cases is difficult. Named accounts flagged in the analysis include “Planktonbets” ($173,907 across seven bets), “Dicedicedice” ($119,964 at a 400% return), and “Neodbs” ($89,000 at a 900% return).