A notable increase in betting activity related to a potential ceasefire between the United States and Iran has sparked significant interest in prediction markets, with over $170 million traded on Polymarket, marking one of the largest geopolitical wagers ever made in this space.

This situation has brought back discussions about the risks of insider trading and the challenges platforms face in resolving contracts linked to intricate real-world happenings, all while user participation continues to surge.

Several strategically timed bets made by newly formed anonymous accounts have raised questions about whether these traders might have acted on insider information. Lookonchain, a blockchain analytics firm, pinpointed three accounts that amassed over $480,000 in profits by wagering on a ceasefire by April 7 and subsequently cashing out at higher prices.

In a related note, Bubblemaps SA, a blockchain forensics entity, highlighted another group of trades that generated over $560,000, with accounts that previously anticipated attacks on Iran making new bets on a ceasefire.

“We cannot definitively label these accounts as insiders,” noted Bubblemaps in a social media update. “However, their history of accurately predicting surprise attacks on Iran suggests they may possess information that is more reliable than what is available to others.” Despite these observations, much of the evidence is circumstantial, and there is no concrete proof directly linking any trades to insider actions.

Interest in geopolitical betting has surged alongside the Iran conflict, as users increasingly turn to these platforms to speculate on real-world events ranging from elections to military developments.